Those 3rd down numbers are fascinating. I don't think the "ceiling touts" (for lack of a better term) will ever be satisfied with Jimmy, but you make a really compelling case.
Side note: as a Tannehill truther, his drop-off bums me out.
Though I mostly disagree, it’s quite refreshing to read a well researched article about Jimmy. The public discourse would be so much more tolerable if we could all rely on facts rather than narratives.
Why I disagree…the Niners have led the league in YAC per reception every year since 2018, and two of those seasons were primarily quarterbacked by CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens. From a Bayesian perspective, we can infer that Jimmy doesn’t have any special ability to help his receivers gain YAC. That’s important when so much of Jimmy’s EPA value is derived from YAC.
I do agree that Jimmy is objectively a very good QB on third down. But on this Niners team specifically, I question how much that really matters. Third down conversions are paramount for the Chiefs, for example, because their defense can’t stop a nosebleed and the offense only gets 8 or 9 drives per game. But that’s not the case in San Fran. With a dominant defense, the Niners offense can afford a few extra punts per game without a major hit to their likelihood of winning.
Interesting points. The thing about yac is that the offense is designed to produce it. Yes, Jimmy doesn't have special ability to lead the league, but the EPA numbers still show that he's driving more value than others. There can also be a difference between number one in one season, and number one in another season. I'd have to look to see whether or not Jimmy was deriving more value from yac than the others, even if all were number one in their respective seasons.
That's fair. I guess in a general sense I question how much control QB's have over YAC at all. At the game level, YAC/Comp has a slightly negative correlation with both PFF grades and QBR. That alone doesn't prove anything, but I find it pretty telling that a process metric and a results metric both conclude that YAC is immaterial to a QB being good.
QBR explicitly discounts YAC EPA vs Air EPA. I think it also underrates Jimmy because his YAC isn't as much variance as some others. Shanahan has designed this offense to generate a higher proportion of YAC, which means it's more stable. It also looks less impressive from a "big-time throw" perspective, and those throws drive *a lot* of the PFF pass grading. (Too much, imo)
That’s a good point about YAC being more stable in the Shanahan offense. The high YAC throws Jimmy makes are often intentionally designed for that purpose, compared to say Baker Mayfield’s big YAC plays earlier this year which felt totally random.
Is it fair to say that our current QB stats aren’t really equipped to measure the QB contribution in the Shanahan offense?
Holy cow. What a fantastic analysis. It’s nice to read some of the things that those of us that are called “JimmyStans” or “JimmySexuals” appreciate about our quarterback, without necessarily having something beyond intuition that he’s actually a pretty damn good QB.
I often think that if he had made the throw in the SB, or hadn’t been injured in 2020, we would have a completely different view of who and what Jimmy is. So much of our opinion of a player is built on the self-perpetuating machine of pundit takes and fan takes based on those pundits. It’s sad, really.
Those 3rd down numbers are fascinating. I don't think the "ceiling touts" (for lack of a better term) will ever be satisfied with Jimmy, but you make a really compelling case.
Side note: as a Tannehill truther, his drop-off bums me out.
Though I mostly disagree, it’s quite refreshing to read a well researched article about Jimmy. The public discourse would be so much more tolerable if we could all rely on facts rather than narratives.
Why I disagree…the Niners have led the league in YAC per reception every year since 2018, and two of those seasons were primarily quarterbacked by CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens. From a Bayesian perspective, we can infer that Jimmy doesn’t have any special ability to help his receivers gain YAC. That’s important when so much of Jimmy’s EPA value is derived from YAC.
I do agree that Jimmy is objectively a very good QB on third down. But on this Niners team specifically, I question how much that really matters. Third down conversions are paramount for the Chiefs, for example, because their defense can’t stop a nosebleed and the offense only gets 8 or 9 drives per game. But that’s not the case in San Fran. With a dominant defense, the Niners offense can afford a few extra punts per game without a major hit to their likelihood of winning.
Interesting points. The thing about yac is that the offense is designed to produce it. Yes, Jimmy doesn't have special ability to lead the league, but the EPA numbers still show that he's driving more value than others. There can also be a difference between number one in one season, and number one in another season. I'd have to look to see whether or not Jimmy was deriving more value from yac than the others, even if all were number one in their respective seasons.
That's fair. I guess in a general sense I question how much control QB's have over YAC at all. At the game level, YAC/Comp has a slightly negative correlation with both PFF grades and QBR. That alone doesn't prove anything, but I find it pretty telling that a process metric and a results metric both conclude that YAC is immaterial to a QB being good.
QBR explicitly discounts YAC EPA vs Air EPA. I think it also underrates Jimmy because his YAC isn't as much variance as some others. Shanahan has designed this offense to generate a higher proportion of YAC, which means it's more stable. It also looks less impressive from a "big-time throw" perspective, and those throws drive *a lot* of the PFF pass grading. (Too much, imo)
That’s a good point about YAC being more stable in the Shanahan offense. The high YAC throws Jimmy makes are often intentionally designed for that purpose, compared to say Baker Mayfield’s big YAC plays earlier this year which felt totally random.
Is it fair to say that our current QB stats aren’t really equipped to measure the QB contribution in the Shanahan offense?
As always, a pleasure to read/hear your analysis 👏
Holy cow. What a fantastic analysis. It’s nice to read some of the things that those of us that are called “JimmyStans” or “JimmySexuals” appreciate about our quarterback, without necessarily having something beyond intuition that he’s actually a pretty damn good QB.
I often think that if he had made the throw in the SB, or hadn’t been injured in 2020, we would have a completely different view of who and what Jimmy is. So much of our opinion of a player is built on the self-perpetuating machine of pundit takes and fan takes based on those pundits. It’s sad, really.
Put some respect on his name, indeed.
#HimmyGuap
👊