Archive - Unexpected Points

Super Bowl Power Rankings: Chiefs vs Eagles

These aren't the top-2 teams by my numbers, but close to the top, with the Chiefs rated only slightly better

Jan 29 •

Conference Championship: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Eagles-Commanders & Chiefs-Bills

Jan 27 •

Conference Championship NFL Power Rankings

Two of the three best teams in the NFL are out, with the Bills positioned to make their first Super Bowl appearance

Jan 22 •

Divisional Round Sunday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Eagles-Rams & Bills-Ravens

Jan 20 •

Divisional Round Saturday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Chiefs-Texans and Lions-Commanders

Jan 19 •

NFL Plus/Minus: Myles Garrett is the Defensive Player of the Year (Again)

Using historical on-off the field splits and player clustering to estimate value of defenders

Jan 16 •

Divisional Round NFL Power Rankings

The three best teams in the NFL remain, with the Eagles and Chiefs lurking in the next tier

Jan 14 •

Wild Card MNF Rams-Vikings: Advanced Review

In what likely signals the end of the Sam Darnold era in Minnesota, the Vikings crash out of the playoffs, with the Rams peaking at the right time

Jan 14 •

Wild Card Sunday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Bills-Broncos, Eagles-Packers and Buccaneers-Commanders

Jan 13 •

Wild Card Saturday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Steelers

Jan 12 •

NFL Plus/Minus: Who Should Be The 2024 NFL Offensive Player Of The Year?

Using proprietary NFL Plus/Minus methodology to concretely assign value to all non-quarterback offensive players

Jan 9 •

Who is the real 2024 NFL MVP? Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)

In a razor-thin contest for NFL MVP, the majority of metrics lean slightly in one direction

Jan 8 •

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