Winners and Losers of the NFL Draft Combine: Wide Receivers & Running Backs

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2025 NFL draft class

Matthew Golden ran his way up NFL boards in the combine

Last week, I released the results of my updated historical modeling for offensive and defensive positions on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006, which quantified the effects on NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills. I already published my model results for the 2024 class first-day(defensive line and linebackers) and second-day participants in combine drills (defensive backs and tight ends).

In this analysis, I’m going to apply those value models to the wide receivers and running backs from the third day of drills. Below, I’ll show an updated illustrations for the model results, i.e. the attribute effects of each drill and measurement on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position.

I’ll then give a table with all the combine participants at each position, and their percentile scores according to the model for draft value and actual NFL value. This will help separate how combine performances will be viewed by NFL teams and how they could project to actual NFL value, very often different things entirely. Prospects with low draft scores but high NFL value scores could be relative discounts in the draft.

WIDE RECEIVERS

You don’t want to completely fade the combine for wide receivers, but the historical data reflects a serious trend in previously draft classes of overvaluing traits like size and speed. In recent draft classes, smaller receivers have started to go much earlier, so that trend could be reversing. However, among receiver prospects projected to be middle or late-round picks going in the combine, a strong 40-yard dash still can push them up multiple rounds, often in an unjustified manner.

Wide receivers have become ridiculously fast in recent years, partially because of a decrease in average size, but mostly they’re just a lot better at running the combine prints than in the past. There’s also an element of selection bias, with slower receivers likely choosing to skip the sprints, knowing that doing so in the past hasn’t hurt the draft status of top prospects at the position.

There’s a wide top-tier of combine performance by my “Draft” with six scoring above the 90th percentile. Matthew Golden ran the fastest forty, but didn’t participate in any other drills. Running a 4.29-second forty at 191 pounds is alone strong enough to solidify his draft status. Golden was PFF’s WR4 and 25th overall prospect heading into the combine, so this performance could lock him into the first round.