Winners and Losers of the NFL Combine: Defensive Linemen & Linebackers

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2025 NFL draft class

Earlier this week, I released the results of my updated historical modeling on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006, which quantified the effects on NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills.

In this analysis, I’m going to apply those value models to the first-day participants at the 2025 NFL Combine: defensive linemen and linebackers. Below I’ll show an updated illustrations for the model results, i.e. the attribute effects of each drill and measurement on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position.

I’ll then give a table with all the combine participants at each position, and their percentile scores according to the model for draft value and actual NFL value. This will help separate how combine performances will be viewed by NFL teams and how they could project to actual NFL value, very often different things entirely. Prospects with low draft scores but high NFL value scores could be relative discounts in the draft.

I also imputed times and jump measurements for the based on weight-based assumptions if the prospect didn’t participate in the sprints, with a penalty for non-participation. Those prospects who didn’t participate in any of the sprints, jumps or agility drills will not have a score in the model.

DEFENSIVE TACKLES

Starting with defensive tackles, we can see that they gain draft value at larger sizes, but NFL value - mostly via pass rushing - as small, agile player. Unfortunately, only eight participated in the three-cone drill, but I also inputted times for those who participated in enough of the other drills to do so, with a discount to that assumed time for non-participation.

Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins scores highest according to the NFL “Value” model, but only somewhat above average in the “Draft” position projection. Ingram-Dawkins is small for the position, which the value model views favorably. He also posted strong agility times and jumps, and his forty time was outstanding, though not as elite when weight-adjusted. Ingram-Dawkins currently isn’t even rated on PFF’s 300-plus prospect Big Board, so this performance could move him up dramatically on draft boards.

A handful of the elite prospects at the position didn’t participate in anything other than physical measurements, but PFF’s four highest rate interior defender (21st overall) Derrick Harmon at least participated in the sprints, positing excellent times for a 313-pound prospect. Harmon modeled out with the second-best “Value” percentile and the second-best “Draft” score, meaning he could have solidified himself as a first-round pick.

The combine result for T.J. Sanders might be the biggest negative for a top prospect (6th at the position and 37th overall, according to PFF), posting somewhat pedestrian agility times and jump measurements.

EDGE RUSHERS