Wild Card Saturday, Texans-Browns & Chiefs-Dolphins: Advanced Reviews

CJ Stroud shines in his playoff debut, while the frigid conditions in Kansas City seemingly only affected one offense

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

HOU-CLE

It was a dominant win for the Texans, but not quite as much by the adjusted scores. Both teams weren’t very successful offensively on a play-by-play basis, but the Texans hit on numerous big plays, and the Browns offense gave away as many points as they scores.

The Browns actually had a slightly higher offensive success rate (38% to 37%), but their results were on the opposite ends of the spectrum, the Texans hitting the 95th percentile in EPA efficiency, and the Brown at the 6th. Neither team was able to get much going on the ground, with the Texans’ 21% success rate on designed runs holding down their overall figure.

The clock struck midnight for the Cinderella comeback season for Joe Flacco, with the two most impactful plays being his two pick-6’s, costing the Browns a combined 16.6 expected points. The next three big-impact plays were huge gains for the Texans offense: a 76-yard touchdown to Brevin Jordan, a 37-yard touchdown to Dalton Schultz and a 38-yard third down conversion to Nico Collins.