Wild Card Round NFL Power Rankings

We have a new team at the top, another five still in the top-tier, and the defending champs looking vulnerable

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 2% weight at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

The 14 remaining playoff teams are highlighted in the plot. You can see that the NFL season largely produced the right playoff contingent, though some deserving teams in the second tier (Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons) didn’t make it to the postseason. In their places, a few clearly third-tier teams did make it. In descending order of overall team strength those teams are: the Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The top tier still has six teams and two cohorts. One has elite offense and average-ish defense (Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions), the other with great offense and elite defense (Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers).

The Lions now have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, a recognition of their likely superior team strength to the lagging Kansas City Chiefs, and that they’ve secured the No. 1 seed and Wild Card round bye. At least by my numbers, the NFC doesn’t provide an easier path to the title. If you exclude the two No. 1 seeds, the top tier has three NFC teams to two in the AFC, the second tier two-to-two and two of the tier weakest teams residing the in the AFC bracket.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS