Wide Receiver & Tight End Winners & Losers of the NFL Combine

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2023 NFL draft class

Before the combine, I released the results of historical modeling on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006 and quantified the effect of NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills. 

In this analysis, I’m going to apply the value models, with a few tweaks, to the results of the 2023 class' combine, focusing on receivers here (wide receivers and tight ends), after having analyzed defensive linemen, and defensive backs after the first two days of drills.

I’ll show an updated illustration for the attribute effect — i.e., the impact of outperformance on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position. The players in the tables below are listed by “Draft Percentile”, or how high the volume predicts they’ll be taken in the draft only by their combine results. You can contrast those to the “+/- Percentile”, which is more focused on NFL value.

For background on the methodology for the analysis and top-10 historical results at each position, check out my posts on which drills/measurements matter for offensive and defensive positions.

WIDE RECEIVERS

The combine is much more important in determining where wide receivers will be taken in the NFL draft than how much value they add in their early careers. Wide receiver is more of a skilled-based position, making it harder to determine what form of athleticism is more correlated with NFL value. What we do know, is that the drills have a huge effect on draft position, which will lead to more opportunities in the NFL.

Let’s get into the results for the 2023 class.

Bryce Ford-Wheaton has the higher draft percentile in the class, above the 99th percentile. He participated in every drill, and his weight-adjusted scores are off the charts. Ford-Wheaton hasn’t had the strongest evaluations going into the combine, but this could at least move him onto teams’ boards.