Weekly Commentary & Review #8

The 49ers send Trey Lance packing, and the Cardinals are sweeping out the last regime's garbage

This post looks at the storylines of the week, whether relevant articles, analyses or other news from the week that provide useful insight to absorb, or missing context to add.

It was an active week for storylines in the NFL, and I’m glad my delay in producing this piece allowed confirmation that Trey Lance has been traded, resolving speculation following the San Francisco 49ers naming Sam Darnold the backup this season.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Dallas Cowboys topped all bidders with a fourth-round pick as compensation, a move nearly universally praised by commentators. There are a number of angles to approach the ramifications and consequences (or lack thereof) in the Lance saga, which I’ll layout here.

WHAT ARE THE COWBOYS THINKING?

I’m probably less enthusiastic about this deal from the Cowboys’ perspective than others, despite the fact that macro issues favor teams making acquisitions at this point in the offseason (more on that later).

It’s important to remember that while there might be 95% of the media in favor of a deal, the very nature of trades means the acquiring team was willing to pay more than the 30 other potential suitors. The Cowboys, at least theorectically, valued Lance more than anyone else, and that value was just a future fourth-round pick. We shouldn’t blindly appeal to the authority of NFL front offices in our assessments, but they have to take a more comprehensive view of trade costs than outside observers.

Teams are not just trading for players, they’re also trading for contracts. As a former first-round pick, the rest of Lance’s rookie contract is fully guaranteed. For the 2023 season, there’s only the base salary of $940,000 left for the Cowboys to shell out, but that number jumps to $6.25 million for 2024. No team looking to acquire Lance could confidently project installing him as a starter this year, somewhat negating the discounted number for 2023.

Spending roughly 2.5% of the cap on Lance next season doesn’t seem like a lot, but we are talking about a quarterback the 49ers had two seasons and three offseasons to assess, and they decided he wasn’t a better option than another former No. 3 pick Sam Darnold. As poor as Darnold has been so far in his career, he did win the starting job in multiple locations, and his 2023 salary is 30% less than what Lance will make next year. As it currently stands, Dak Prescott’s 2024 cap number is $59.5 million, meaning over 25% of the Cowboys cap would go to quarterbacks next year, assuming Lance and Prescott are still there. The other intangible-but-real cost to the Lance trade is the media noise and mental energy coaches and players will have to spend talking about it, though I tend to discount those concerns more than others.

My overall point here is that the trade might be low-cost, but it isn’t free. That said, we tend to underestimate the range of possibilities that could occur just a year away. This is a make-or-break season for Mike McCarthy, with anything short of a NFC Championship run making his exit likely. If there is a reset at coach, the Cowboys could also look to do the same at quarterback. Prescott has never gotten the backing from ownership and front office in Dallas as you see for many other franchise quarterbacks, having to play through a franchise tag to get a market-setting long-term deal.

Prescott doesn’t have any guaranteed salary left on his contract, meaning the $61.9 million cap hit the Cowboys would take by trading or releasing him next season is an accounting loss, not cash. If Jerry Jones & Co. like what they see from Lance, and the season ends in disappointment again, they could prefer the trade compensation Prescott will bring to a restructure that requires additional cash guarantees.

WHAT ARE THE 49ERS THINKING?

I don’t really get this trade from the 49ers perspective, not only because the fourth-round pick compensation is relatively small. As poor Lance may have looked in practice in comparison to Darnold, the uncertainty you still have to have in whether Lance is good or bad puts him in a more positive position to the larger sample of Darnold’s poor play. Whatever the 49ers saw in Lance to make him the Week 1 starter a year ago, despite having an effective Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster, should still be there.