Week 9, MNF Jets-Chargers: Advanced Review

Will we finally see capitulation with a Jets quarterback change?

One of the eight Zach Wilson sacks. Credit: AP Photo/Seth Wenig

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYJ vs LAC

The adjusted scores see a much closer game than the actual score, mostly because both teams were fundamentally awful offensively, with one getting the benefits of higher variance plays. The Chargers offensive success rate was almost identical to the Jets (34.5% to 34.1%), but enjoyed huge turnover (+18 EPA), late-down conversion (+14.8 EPA) and penalty/special teams advantages *+6.5 EPA).

Shockingly, the Jets out gained the Chargers by 79 yards (270 to 191) and averaged more yards per play (3.5 to 3.4). The Chargers only averaged net passing yards 3.1 yards per dropback, but converted both red zone trips into touchdowns.

The adjusted scores model might not fully appreciate the level of disfunction in the Jets offense, which makes those “unlucky” high variance disadvantages a weekly staple. That said, giving up a punt-return touchdown and losing three of four fumbles, while your opponent lost none of three, probably aren’t representative of fundamental negatives of the Jets offense.

Five of the top-6 most impactful plays of the game by expected points were negatives for the Jets, including conceding an 87-yard punt return touchdown, which was the first score of the game cost them 16% in win probability (45% to 29%) and 6 expected points. The Jets fumbles cost them a total of 18 expected points.

For all of the gaslighting Robert Salah has been doing about the capabilities of Zach Wilson for the last couple years, he wasn’t lying with post-game comment that this wasn’t close to Wilson’s worst game. At -0.29 EPA per play, last night was the only the 11th worst efficiency game for Wilson in 29 games with at least 20 dropbacks, a nugget that points to the much larger problem of how consistently bad Wilson has been.

If you’ve been reading/listening to the content on this newsletter, you know that I’ve been strongly advocating for the Jets to bolster their quarterback room beyond Wilson since the day after Aaron Rodgers went down with an achilles tear. Nothing about Wilson’s play over the past several weeks has altered the projection that he’s the least efficient starting quarterback in the NFL, even if the rest of the team has someone lifted him to a 4-4 starting record this season. I get the temptation for the Jets to try and ride out with Wilson until Rodgers’ possible return, but entirely preventible losses like this will weigh on their playoff chances heavily, and even backup Tim Boyle can’t be any worse.

Justin Herbert’s awful game might fly under the radar a bit with the optically strong win and the focus on Wilson’s massive deficiencies. The Jets have a good pass defense, but rank 12th with an average opponent EPA per dropback of -0.02, and Herbert posted a much worse -0.12 EPA in this game. Herbert continued with a low-aDOT passing attack (5.6-yards), but was also very inaccurate by the numbers, completing only 16 of 30 attempts (-10.3% CPOE).