There’s been way too much hand wringing over the missed call. Even if the flag had been thrown, LAR still had a 90%+ chance of winning. It didn’t decide the game by any means.
I estimate post-penalty (1st & 10, 20 yard-line, 1:40 left) that win probability would have been 7-8%. Eight points is the most underestimated lead. You need *four* things to go right: TD, 2-pointer, not enough time for opponent to score at the end, and win in overtime.
There’s been way too much hand wringing over the missed call. Even if the flag had been thrown, LAR still had a 90%+ chance of winning. It didn’t decide the game by any means.
I estimate post-penalty (1st & 10, 20 yard-line, 1:40 left) that win probability would have been 7-8%. Eight points is the most underestimated lead. You need *four* things to go right: TD, 2-pointer, not enough time for opponent to score at the end, and win in overtime.