Week 8 NFL Power Rankings

The Lions maintain the top spot, with the Ravens and Chiefs on their heels

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 5% weight at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

Another week in the books and we haven’t clarified which teams are truly elite this year, but we’re getting a little closer. The Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens handled business to maintain their spots, importantly showing offensive strength to go with decent defense. There may not be a complete team this year, but the go-forward projections favor those with strong offenses over strong defenses, as the former is usually more predictive going forward.

It was also a good win for the Kansas City Chiefs against a struggling San Francisco 49ers squad, but mostly a defensive performance. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game is still stuck in the mud a bit, which for them means looking average. I have faith they get things turned around, which puts them in a fantastic position with six wins and no losses already in the bank.

Are the Denver Broncos for real? I’d lean “no”, but the numbers love their defense based on recent play, putting them in the mix for the best in the NFL, with an offense that’s in the bottom-half of the NFL, but not the bottom-5. The Broncos have been able to run the ball effectively (top-12 in EPA per designed run), while rookie Bo Nix has papered over poor passing performances with rushing value (sixth in EPA on designed runs and scrambles).

The Philadelphia Eagles are sneaking up on the rest of the NFL, with an easier schedule the rest of the season, plus the return of A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley adding explosives in the run game. Their league-average defense is a vast improvement over last year, when that unit finished in the bottom-5 on a schedule-adjusted basis in 2023.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS