Week 8 NFL Power Rankings

The rankings, finally, capitulate on the Ravens as a top team, and the Chiefs jump back into the top-2

You notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on Week 6 results. The numbers still use some 2022 data, and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

The adjusted-score based metrics for teams in 2023 are pretty sticky week-over-week, with the Bills, Dolphins and 49ers retaining the best numbers. But the competition is making up ground, with the Chiefs and Eagles a whisper away, and a handful of teams within shouting distance.

There’s probably the most skepticism around the Dolphins as a legitimate Super-Bowl contender of the top-tier teams, but the rest are as solid as they get. The question will be who can emerge from the next tier to enter the discussion. In the minds of many, the Ravens are already there after a thrashing of the Lions - another second-tier team - on Sunday. My adjusted scores saw the game as closers than the final result, but it was tough to have it any wider than the 32-point beatdown.

The teams I’d put in the “surprisingly good” category for this season are the Saints and Colts, two teams that can’t get W-L results that match their fundamental strengths. On the flip side, the SOS-adjusted metrics aren’t impressed by the 5-2 Jaguars or 4-3 Falcons, though skepticism ab

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.