Week 8 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Bengals-Eagles, Browns-Ravens, Lions-Titans, Texans-Colts, Jags-Packers, Dolphins-Cardinals, Patriots-Jets and Falcons-Bucs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CIN (-2.5) vs PHI

There was some indication that things might be getting better for the Bengals defense after holding the Giants and Browns to a combined 21 points their last two games. But it looks like those results were all about the ineptitude of their competition.

A healthy and rejuvenated Eagles offense dropped that hammer on the Bengals defense, hitting the 97th percentile in EPA efficiency, scoring high marks when dropping back to pass or rushing, doing the latter in volume. The Eagles rushed at a 62% clip (13.5% over expectation), with Saquon Barkley providing strong steady gains (22 carries, 108 yards, +0.8 EPA) and Jalen Hurts continuing his unstoppable short-yardage success rate and extreme efficiency (10 carries, 37 yards, 3 touchdowns, +6.5 EPA). Hurts converted two 3rd & 1’s (one touchdown) and a 4th & 1, plus scores rushing from 7 and 1 yard.

But Hurts wasn’t just a rushing quarterback, his efficiency dropping back to pass was also excellent, including a 45-yard touchdown to DeVonta Smith that was the biggest play of the game in EPA (+4.7) and win probability added (+23.5%). That score was the beginning of the Eagles running away with the once-tied game. The Bengals next three possessions ended on a failed 4th & 1, interception and fumble.

The lopsided score will mask the fact that the Bengals passing game wasn’t bad. Even with a receiver fumble, the Bengals hit the 58th percentile in dropback efficiency, but they couldn’t run the ball. Chase Brown and Zack Moss totaled 43 yards on 17 carries for -4.8 EPA.

The counting stats aren’t that impressive for Hurts, but his 236 passing yards came on only 20 attempts (11.8 YPA), and he didn’t take any sacks or turn the ball over. Adding his elite rushing production, and you get an overall efficiency of +0.68 EPA per play, the best number for Hurts in 64 career starts.

Joe Burrow continues to be let down by his defense, though his efficiency wasn’t of the most impressive variety, with the majority of his passing EPA coming after-the-catch. Burrow was the bit unlucky with a tipped INT going against him. But you could also make the argument that the massive +10.9 EPA the Bengals gained on third down conversions (10-of-13) was a little bit on the lucky side.

The Bengals are 3-5 and face the Raiders and Ravens in their next two games.

CLE vs BAL (-7.5)