Week 7 NFL Power Rankings

The Lions rapidly jump the rankings, while the Cowboys are in free-fall

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 5-10% weighting at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

It’s crazy how many teams fit into my arbitrary-but-illustrative top-two tiers for NFL play this season. You have 4-6 teams who could all be ranked as the best performers in 2024 by tilting the assessments slightly, plus another handful of teams not that far away. There’s really nothing separating 2-4 teams like the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals from the 4-2 Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers.

What it all means is that rankings are going to fluctuate a lot based on weekly results, even at the top of the NFL. Just when I thought teams like the Detroit Lions may have been exposed a bit in lucky wins to start the season, they came out the last few weeks and dominated on both sides of the ball.

When in doubt, I’m going to trust the teams with established elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over others near the top of the rankings. But I can’t discount the numbers that say their teams are materially better than others with questionable quarterback play.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS