Week 7 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

The Mahomes-Kelce show in KC puts the Chiefs firmly in the driver's seat for AFC West, and looking at the No. 1 seed

Travis Kelce loves playing the Chargers, with good reason

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

KC vs LAC

Before we get to the details of this game, the advanced metrics, and everything that helps us be smarter football watchers, I have to acknowledge that this game was Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined for those annoyed by famous fan cutaways. Not only was Taylor Swift in the crowd, per usual, but she was joined by viral Chargers (or is it Vikings?) emotional fan. I was generally on the side of those defending the latter when her fandom was questioned, but she took whatever goodwill was out in the world, rolled it up and smoked it by flying out to KC to shill for Buffalo Wild Wings. Can’t knock the hustle, I guess.

As far as the actual game goes, this was the “for the love of God, please stop running the ball” bowl. The success rate and differential between passing and rushing wasn’t that different for the Chargers, and they did rely on the run for their biggest play of the game (49-yard Josh Kelley TD). But Austin Ekeler had only 45 yards on 14 carries (-2.4 EPA, 21% success rate), and Kelley non-touchdown-run value was negative (-0.7 EPA).

The Chiefs running ball, even as infrequently as they did (17 times, or 17.3% of the time), felt like a gut punch every time. The Chiefs didn’t gain more than seven yards on any designed run, gaining three or fewer yards 70% of the time. I know theoretically quarterbacks and receivers need breaks in the action, and you have to “keep the defense honest”. But how could the Chiefs not have been more efficiency this week if they simply let Patrick Mahomes drop back and pass in all non-clock-killing situations. When the chips were down, the Chiefs dropped back to pass in order to convert every third down, successful 55% of the time, adding 5.6 EPA.

The worst play for the Chiefs was a bit fluky - a Blake Bell fumble on a drive inside the Chargers 20 and going to almost seal the game with a touchdown. The Chargers also had some bad luck with a tipped interception inside the Chiefs 10.