Week 6 London & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Bears-Jaguars, Ravens-Commanders, Packers-Cardinals, Patriots-Texans, Saints-Buccaneers, Eagles-Browns and Titans-Colts

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CHI vs JAX (-1.5)

The adjusted scores are a little more narrow than the final tally, but within the normal range for an actual 19-point differential. The Bears had the much stronger offensive success rate (56% to 37%), but also benefited some by recovering two of three fumbles. What isn’t included in the adjusted scores are, according to my untrained eye, three dropped touchdown passes by Jaguars receivers, adding poor execution on top of bad fundamentals on offense.

The Bears offense drove 95th percentile EPA efficiency with an extremely strong passing offense, registering improvement each week, including positive numbers the last three games. Despite a receiver fumble and drops, the Jags passing offense hit the 40th percentile, which wasn’t nearly enough considering what their defense allowed.

Evan Engram’s fumble to begin the second half was the most impactful play by EPA (-4.5), with a garbage-time touchdown to Gabe Davis next (+4.1).

When Caleb Williams was picked under-throwing an open D.J. Moore with the score 7-3 (-4.0 EPA), there was some worry if the rookie would turn back to his prior-season struggles. That didn’t happen, with the Bears scoring touchdowns on the next four drives, followed by a missed field goal.

Keenan Allen only had five targets, but he turned those into +10 EPA, driven by a high-leverage touchdown on 3rd & Goal from the JAX 9 (+3.2), a 4th & 3 conversion (+2.8) and another score from three yards out (+1.4).

Williams had a relatively low-volume passing day, but added 56 yards on the ground on four carries (+4.2 EPA, two each of designed runs and scrambles). Weirdly, Williams had three sacks, but those only caused five total yards lost. Williams confirmed his strong EPA efficiency with extreme accuracy (16.1% CPOE).

Trevor Lawrence had a good game in a vacuum, but his interception and three sacks (-7.9 EPA) were enough negatives to make matching Williams an impossibility. Lawrence will likely jump up my adjusted quarterback efficiency rankings once drops are reflected.

The fact that the Jaguars are staying in London for another week likely delays the firing of Doug Pederson for another week. The Q-word (quit) was used in a post-game interview by the Jags Andre Cisco on what he saw from his teammates in the second half of the game.

BAL (-7) vs WAS