Week 5 TNF Falcons-Buccaneers: Advanced Review

Falcons are now in early control of the NFC South, after a wild game of points and yards, stuff that we haven't seen much this season

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL-TB

NFL scoring is back!! At least that will be the refrain from some quarters following the overly influential island game with a combined total of 66 points, though needing overtime to get there.

I hate to be the killer of enthusiasm (actually, I don’t mind it at all), but the idea that this high-scoring affair and some other recent island games show a sustainable uptick in scoring is a fragile conclusion, at best. The NFL’s scoring average in Week 4 was 45.6 points per game, higher than Weeks 2-3, but still lower than Week 1. It’s really all part of a big drop since 2020 and 2021, when the averages were above 50 points per game during the first four weeks of those seasons.

The adjusted scores agree that the Falcons were the better team, despite some plays at the end of the game that seemed fortunate for them, and the luck of winning the overtime coin toss to end the game without the Bucs being able to respond.

The Bucs were unlucky to lose a fumble with around three minutes remaining, inside the ATL 30 and up three points. At the time, the Bucs had a 84% win probability pre-play according to the numbers from the nflverse. They intercepted the Falcons on the following drive, but penalties and poor rushing plays took them all the way out of field-goal range. Then a punt into the end zone gave the Falcons a good starting point to drive down with 1:14 remaining and make the game-tying 52-yard field goal.

If you view the game through a wider lens, a lot of the high variance plays overall went to the Bucs, including a big kick return, 50-plus yard rushing play, and some earlier fumble recovery luck. The Bucs had a 13.1 EPA advantage on special teams and penalties, including multiple missed/blocked Falcons’ field goal attempts, a category of plays that is of the highest variance, so therefore discounting heavily in the model.

The overall success rate and EPA efficiency numbers for both teams were fairly similar, with the Falcons getting their own high-variance boosts from two huge fourth down conversions to Darrrell Mooney. These weren’t half-yard tush pushes, but one on 4th & 3 and the second on 4th & 4 that resulted in a touchdown. Overall, the Falcons were 2-for-3 on fourth down conversions, adding +5.4 EPA, while the Bucs didn’t attempt any.

The 4th down touchdown for the Falcons was the biggest play of the game in win probability added (+27.2%), while the Bucs lost fumble was the highest impact play in EPA (-4.8, also -18.2% WPA).

What saved the Falcons in this game was a pass-heavy gameplan. Both teams had around 20 designed runs, but the Falcons dropped back to pass more than twice as often (65 to 31). Both teams ran the ball poorly, though the Bucs’ bad number was highly impacted by the single fumble lost. The Bucs were more efficient running, only marginally less efficient passing, but materially less efficiency overall due to the mix of plays.

Very similar numbers between the two quarterbacks overall, though the internals are different. Baker Mayfield had much smaller volume and total EPA than Kirk Cousins, with the latter needing to overcome more negatives, including four sacks and an interception.

The traditional, volume stats for Cousins are wild, with 509 passing yards and four touchdowns. The Falcons finished with 550 total yards to only 333 for the Bucs, despite both teams averaging about the same per play (6.8 to 6.5).

The Falcons and Bucs are both 3-2, but the former has much better betting-implied probability to win the NFC South (roughly 45% to 20%) after securing a win that will help in tiebreaker calculations, and the Bucs having to deal with a tougher remaining schedule.

The Bucs’ reward for winning the division last season is the first-place schedule that ranks in the top-10 toughest rest of season, whereas the Falcons have one of the easiest in the NFL.

The Saints are still lurking at 2-2 with divisional odds between the Bucs and Saints (around 30%), with a very easy schedule going forward, though slightly harder than the Falcons, who have tiebreaker advantage after beating the Saints last week.