Week 5 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Cardinals-Commanders, 49ers-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs and Raiders-Browns

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DEN-LV

Solid win for the Broncos at home, leading the Raiders easily in success rate, and driving down their opponents offensive efficiency with takeaways. The Broncos certainly aren’t “for real” at 3-2, but their defense could be. They’ve held three opponents under 10 points, and another two no higher than 20.

The Broncos helped control the game with their rushing offense. While it wasn’t highly efficient, they did add incremental value on their 24 runs (+1.0 EPA), which was more than enough considering the turnovers their defense forced.

The Broncos picked off the Raiders three times, including a massive 12.7 expected points swing taking a Gardner Minshew pass on 1st & Goal from the five all the way back for six in the other direction.

Minshew was bad, Aidan O’Connell didn’t look any better in relief, and Bo Nix was, mostly, just there.

SF-ARI