Week 5 SNF Steelers-Cowboys: Advanced Review

The Cowboys played high variance offense, and came away with a difficult but deserved win

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PIT-DAL

The Cowboys got a go-ahead touchdown with under 30 seconds remaining to seal the win, though they needed a little fumble recovery luck to get there. Both teams had similar offensive success rates and EPA efficiencies in this game, but they were built very differently.