Week 5 SNF 49ers-Cowboys: Advanced Review

The 49ers turn a primetime showdown of strength-vs-strength into a walkover

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SF vs DAL

This was a blowout in every sense of the word, with the adjusted score differential of +17 for the 49ers enhanced to an actual +32 through turnovers and garbage-time pile-on. The story going into the game was of four potentially elite units (offense and defense for each team) pairing off and seeing what happens when iron strikes iron - reflected in the close pre-game point spread of 49ers as 3.5-point favorites at home. Instead, we saw the 49ers’ elite offense and defense put the Cowboys’ opposite sides to shame. The Cowboys offense was held to 1st percentile efficiency, and the 49ers in the 90th.