Week 5 NFL Power Rankings

The Vikings enter the top-7, the Browns look cooked, and the 49ers slide back into the top spot

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

The defensive and offensive strength numbers above are estimated for how much each unit would contribute to point differential against an average team on a neutral field.

A combination of marginal changes between the Buffalo Bills (down) and San Francisco 49ers (up) put them in a virtual tie for the highest ranked team in the NFL, with the latter slightly edging out the former, due to a superior defense. We saw the Bills defense get exposed by the Baltimore Ravens on SNF, showing their fragility even as one of the NFL’s best teams.

The next tier includes the rising Ravens (I’m behind the market here), falling Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers holding tight and the steady Detroit Lions. The Lions took care of business at home, with the aid of a huge receiver fumble going their way, so no one other than the Ravens were really impressive.

I’m not sure the Chiefs offense is truly broken, but we’re going on 1.25 regular seasons of struggles for Patrick Mahomes and Co., with a return to EPA-smashing normalcy in last season’s playoffs. I’ll never fully buy my power ranking model’s projection of the Chiefs as only the fifth best offense in the NFL. But another injury to a key offensive weapon could keep a lid on their efficiency until they inevitably figure things out in the playoffs. Hey, at least they’re 4-0, with their main competitors the Bills and Ravens a game or two behind in the standings already.

No team is falling faster out of the “title competitor” range than the Philadelphia Eagles, though they’re still the betting favorites to win the NFC East at 2-2, and my numbers are even lower on the Dallas Cowboys, their pre-season rivals.

Can the Washington Commanders make a run in the division? I still lean “no”, but Jayden Daniels and their rushing attack now have a top-10 offensive projection, though their defense is seen as, by far, the worst in the NFL. I think it’s too early for the outstanding rookie to make a postseason run without defensive support, but stranger things have happened.

The Cleveland Browns now project as the second-worst offense in the NFL by my numbers. The betting markets aren’t nearly as low on them, but what hope has Deshaun Watson given them since his acquisition with a blockbuster trade and contract.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS