Week 4 TNF Giants-Cowboys: Advanced Review
The Cowboys got a needed win in a disjointed game full of penalties and lacking offensive explosions
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
NYG-DAL
In a penalty-laden affair, the Cowboys got what could be considered a must-win game from their playoffs prospects. You could say the must-win-edness of the game was the same for the Giants, but I don’t think many see them as a serious contender to make the playoffs either way. The Cowboys now have an implied playoff probability at roughly 55%, up around 5% from pre-game.
The Cowboys had a significantly superior offense success rate (48% to 38%), and that difference translated into a roughly 70th to 40th difference in EPA efficiency. The Giants kept the score somewhat close because they were able to benefit on late-down conversions (+3.6 EPA), as their most acute struggles came on the ground. Outside of two 4th & 1 conversions (+3.8 EPA), the Giants lost 10.7 expected points on 21 designed runs.
Even from a higher pre-play expected points context of 1st & 10 near mid-field, Dak Prescott’s 55-yard connection to CeeDee Lamb was the biggest impact play of the game in EPA (+4.8) and win probability (+15.3%). Despite the dysfunctional feel of the game with so many flag, most of the high-impact offensive plays were positive, outside of a failed 4th & 6 try by the Giants with 3:30 remaining.
Both quarterbacks were decently efficient, employing similar formulas of accuracy, low negative (combined one INT and two sacks) and deriving passing value after the catch. Outside of the long touchdown to Lamb, Prescott mainly threw the ball underneath (5.5 aDOT). Daniel Jones stretched the field more, but was largely unsuccessful on downfield passes.
Overall, the Giants 4th down numbers look productive: +6.9% in win probability added with decisions and +4.7 EPA converting 3-of-4 tries. However, they did pass up a potential tying try to go for the touchdown on 4th & Goal from the DAL 3, costing them 2.9% win probability. The decision is especially poor when you consider the differentials in post-play success win probability: 43% for converting and only 26% for making the field goal. Sure, the latter is a gimmie and the former has an estimated 35% conversion rate, but you have to take those chances to play yourself into games, especially trailing against a superior opponent.
