Week 4 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Cardinals-Commanders, 49ers-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs and Raiders-Browns

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI-WAS

Just like everyone saw coming in the offseason: the Washington Commanders are in first place in the NFC East, at 3-1 with three straight wins. This game wasn’t, at all, close. The Commanders kept cranking on offense, and, for a change, were able to stop the opponent on defense too. The adjusted scores see the differential a bit more narrow, but 15 points is a huge margin when you discount all the higher variance plays in the game.