Week 4 Sunday Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Falcons-Saints, Panthers-Bengals, Bears-Rams, Packers-Vikings, Texans-Jaguars, Colts-Steelers, Jets-Broncos and Buccaneers-Eagles

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL-NO

The Falcons win on a 58-yard, last-second field goal, but the adjusted scores see the Saints as the better team by fundamentals. The Saints were 8% better by success rate, but saw most of the high impact plays go against them. The Falcons were much more pass heavy overall (71% to 55%) and versus expectation (+8.4% to -8.0%).

Both teams were significantly more efficient running the ball, but the Saints were pretty good throwing it too, outside of an 88-yard pick-6 (-8.6 EPA). A muffed-punt touchdown cost the Saints 7.0 EPA, ultimately making the difference in the final score.

Taysom Hill’s six runs for 24 yards and two touchdowns were the primary driver of the Saints rushing efficiency (+5.1 EPA), but the Falcons had similar per-play numbers, on significantly lower volume (16 designed runs to 33). Tyler Allgeier added +2.7 EPA on eight runs, versus -1.3 on equal volume from Bijan Robinson.

Darnell Mooney was the Falcons most valuable receiving option (+3.2 EPA on seven targets), and Chris Olave’s 11 targets outside of the pick-6 generated +7.4 EPA.

Derek Carr was fundamentally the better passer in this game, but, again, the pick-6 destroyed all the value he produced outside of it. He completed 78% of his passes (+4.9 CPOE), mostly generating YAC value on shorter passes (5.4-yard aDOT).

Kirk Cousins struggled to consistently move the ball in a pass-heavy game, and he, too, was a YAC merchant. Cousins had almost as much negative in his performance as Carr, and he was lucky to have a teammate recover his one fumble.

CAR-CIN

The Bengals finally got their first win of the season, and the game was still really close by the adjusted scores. The Bengals mostly separated from the Panthers on late-downs. While both teams were 7-of-14 converting third downs, the Bengals enjoyed a 12 EPA advantage on those plays, converting from longer distances and the Panthers failing on 3rd & 5 or fewer yards five different times. The Panthers also lost a net 3.9 EPA while going 1-for-3 on fourth downs.