Week 4 Sunday Early Window: Advanced Reviews

The Bills justify my No. 1 power ranking, the Falcons need a quarterback, and the Bengals are in big trouble

Josh Allen and the Bills offense showed the Dolphins they can be just as explosive

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

JAX vs ATL

The Falcons offense was bad, but the fundamentals for the Jaguars weren’t much better. The difference in the game was the turnover-fest from Desmond Ridder, whose two interceptions (including a pick-6), fumble and four sacks cost the Falcons 24.6 expected points. The success rates of the two offenses were roughly equal (Falcons slightly better), and the fact that the Falcons were able to run the ball didn’t matter (Bijan Robinson had 105 yards on 14 carries).

The Jaguars were bad passing the ball, with Trevor Lawrence avoiding mistakes and adding a handful expected points on scrambles. It wasn’t a risky game-plan playing from ahead (6-yard aDOT), and the Jaguars trudged along without much going on the ground.

It’s got to be Taylor Heinicke-time soon in Atlanta. Ridder hadn’t been good the first three weeks of the season, while having some turnover luck. All the Falcons’ investment in surrounding weapons are neutralized without a quarterback who gives them a chance to win. The Falcons are still 2-2, but should feel in crisis with little hope of getting even league-average quarterback play the rest of the season.

BUF vs MIA

The game was expected to have offense fireworks, and didn’t disappoint early with five straight touchdown possessions (3 for the Bills) to start the game. Then there were three straight punts, but the Bills added another 10 points before the half, while the Dolphins suffered a Raheem Mostert fumble and another punt. Up 31-14, the Bills’ win probably was estimated to be 94% at halftime, and didn’t fall under 87% with the next Dolphins touchdown.

The rest of the game was a landslide of offense for the Bills, hitting ridiculous efficiency marks that my adjusted scores model might not be able to handle: 99th percentile offensive efficiency, nearly 100th percentile dropping back to pass.

Allen had as many touchdown passes as incompletions (four), posting his best-ever CPOE of 14.2%, according to tracking-data-based modeling from NFL Next Gen Stats.

Allen’s 0.84 EPA per play was the highest efficiency week for a quarterback with at least 30 dropbacks since 2019 (Aaron Rodgers vs the Raiders, Week 7). Allen might be the new MVP leading candidate after this week is done, which is hilarious after witnessing the reactionary freakout from his Week 1 struggles.

Allen will still trail Tua Tagovailoa in EPA per play after this game, and the results for Tua weren’t as bad as the you might think from such a lopsided final score. There’s also the fact that two of the three most negative plays for Tua came with the game virtually over (1% win probability), two sacks on fourth down (combined 7.4 expected points lost). Tua also threw an interception at 6% win probability (-4.8 EPA). The Bills defense got pressure on Tua unlike we’ve seen this year (four sacks), but I don’t think they have a blueprint to stop the Dolphins offense. Not every NFL team can put that much pressure on the opponent with near perfect efficiency from their own offenses.

PHI vs WAS