Week 4 NFL Power Rankings

The already highly rated Dolphins jump higher, with the Ravens falling out of the top-10

Luckily we already had the Dolphins highly rated, now jumping into the top-3

One of the most difficult balancing acts in the early season is weighing the power rankings I had leading into Week 1 with the evidence we’ve gathered so far this season. I know successful bettors who basically eliminate all priors (i.e. pre-season ratings) by Week 5, and others who decay them much more slowly over the season. Two weeks into this season, my testing shows that the overall power rankings should still be based more on priors than 2023 evidence, although to a lower degree than my intuition. Results matter, especially those from a new season with big shake-up across roster and among coaches. While we assume the fan bases of great teams from last year who have struggled so far can R-E-L-A-X, it’s as often not the case as so.

You notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on Week 3 results. The numbers still use 2022 data, and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics).

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule, which is mostly based on 2022 performances.

The Miami Dolphins move into their own tier with the historical offensive performance against the Broncos. In fact, they’re almost a couple tier above everyone else, with offense have roughly 60% of the total weighting.