Week 5 London & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Vikings-Jets, Bears-Panthers, Bengals-Ravens, Texans-Bills, Jaguars-Colts, Patriots-Dolphins and Commanders-Browns

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

MIN-NYJ

It’s a little shocking the game finished with 40 total points considering the levels of ineptitude for both offenses. Turnovers directly and indirectly leading to points helped boost the score, as both teams' success rates in the high 30% range were well below NFL average.

For as bad as the Vikings offense was, the Jets offense was worse. Perhaps the Vikings defense is really one of the best, if not the best, in the NFL. After this week, they rank first in opponent EPA, combining the second-best dropback defense with the sixth best against the run.

Aaron Rodgers pick-6 was, by far, the most impactful play of the game by EPA (-9.0), though Sam Darnold’s fumble on an aborted snap was also hugely negative (-6.5), especially because its context was a very favorable 1st & 10 inside the NYJ 40.

Rodgers’ game-ending interception was also bug by win probability lost (-20.9%).

By the numbers, Darnold was bad and Rodgers was worse. Darnold has been legitimately good this year in EPA efficiency, even after adjustments. That said, he’s been able to front-run the opposition and never face difficult game-states while playing from ahead. The Vikings defense saved Darnold in London, and they also made Rodgers look every bit of his 40 years old.

CHI-CAR

A breakout game for No. 1 pick Caleb Williams against the Panthers this week. Sure, the opposing defense wasn’t the stiffest competition, but winning by 26 points against any team is a big accomplishment. The fundamentals show a clear victory, but by a tighter margin. The Bears benefited from outsized advantages in the higher variance aspects of the game, primarily turnovers (+9.1 EPA), but also lots of negative plays from the opposing offense on high-leverage third and fourth downs.

A garbage-time Chuba Hubbard fumble was the biggest impact play of the game by EPA (-5.0). By win probability added, Williams’ 34-yard touchdown to D.J. Moore was most significant (+11.3%).