Week 4 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

49ers break offensive efficiency, with the Patriots in the other direction. Chargers *don't* blow it for the second time

You can say that Brock was Purdy good

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC vs LV

You don’t have to look much further than relative success rates to understand why the adjusted scores have the Raiders as the better team, besting the Chargers by almost 10%. But everything went wrong with rookie Aiden O’Connell mistakes, including the three most impactful plays of the game: an interception on first & goal from the 3 (-6.6 EPA), and two strip sacks (combined -10.6 EPA).