Week 3 TNF Jets-Patriots: Advanced Review
Aaron Rodgers looked like his old, HoF self as the Jets offense and defense dominated the Patriots
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
NYJ-NE
The adjusted scores have the Jets win nearly as one-sided as the actual scores, which is impressive for such a wide margin of victory. The Jets simultaneously had the third highest offensive success rate of the season, while holding the Patriots to the 12th lowest (of 66). The Jets had the turnover and late-down advantages, and won handily despite a shorter missed field goal and giving up 3.3 EPA on a DPI call, the Patriots most valuable offensive play of the game.
The Jets weren’t exactly pass happy, but in an NFL with ever decreasing pass rate, they did drop back at a slightly higher rate than expected (roughly 60%, +1.5%). All the talk for the Jets passing attack has been around Garrett Wilson as the primary weapon, but they only generated +0.5 EPA on 10 Wilson targets.
Aaron Rodgers was successful spreading the ball around to drive value, with six Tyler Conklin targets leading to +10.1 EPA, which included three third-down conversions and earning a new set of downs on 2nd & 17. Old friend Allen Lazard helped the Jets earn 5.4 EPA on only three targets.
Outside of a massively negative Rhamondre Stevenson fumble (-5.0 EPA), the Patriots added value on the ground, but weren’t often in the game-state to leverage that advantage after trailing early.
It was an MVP-level performance by Rodgers overall, displaying efficiency, accuracy (+12.7% CPOE) and limiting negatives to two sacks with no turnovers. Jacoby Brissett was largely ineffectual, which will often be the case if he can’t generate any value on the ground and loses nearly 10 expected points to sacks and turnovers.
Drake Maye was largely out of sorts in his relief appearance, 4-of-8 passes (-23% CPOE) for a measly 22 yards (2.8 per attempt) taking two sacks (-5.8 EPA). The fact that the Patriots couldn’t protect Brissett nor Maye likely moves the timeline for the rookie starting further down the schedule.
It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Jets will take 2-1 after three weeks, with the only loss to the 49ers in San Francisco. The Jets now have an implied probability to make the playoffs at around 62% according to betting markets.