Week 2 MNF Panthers-Saints & Steelers-Browns: Advanced Reviews

An ugly offensive slate of games, with the Saints breezing to victory and the Browns wasting great defense by imploding on offense

The Steelers defense outscored their offense in a MNF victory

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Week 2 Early Window, Late Window, and SNF Advanced Reviews

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR vs NO

The early kickoff of Monday night featured a divisional matchup from the surprisingly plucky NFC South. The Saints took care of business, and the result was more convincing that the final score, which includes the Panthers scoring their only touchdown (plus two-point conversion) with a little over a minute left against soft coverage.