Week 18 SNF Dolphins-Bills: Advanced Review

The Bills complete the journey all the way back to the No. 2 seed, with their defense shutting down the Dolphins in the second half

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

MIA-BUF

Despite turnover and late-down conversion advantages, the Dolphins couldn’t take down the Bills at home, and lost the division in the process. Josh Allen seemed intent on making scoring as difficult as possible for the Bills offense that was firing on all cylinders - at least until the inevitable big mistake.

Allen threw two interceptions and lost a fumble - all inside the Dolphins red zone - and also threw a pass in the middle of the field that was stopped at the 1 yard-line without enough time remaining to get the field goal unit ready. Then on the their final drive, Allen failed on a tush push conversion at the Dolphins 31 yard-line. The Bills only punted once, and could have scored a lot more points with any semblance of discipline at the end of drives.

The story is really the Bills defense, that held the Dolphins scoreless in the second half, plus their special teams unit and Deonty Hardy, who made the most impactful play of the game: a 96-yard punt return that added 6.1 expected points. The Dolphins were able to run the ball fairly well, but their passing game struggled, totaling slightly negative EPA on 31 dropbacks.

The Dolphins offense has gone from first in EPA per play during Weeks 1-9 to 10th the rest of the season, with the rankings for dropback and designed-run efficiency falling from second and second, respectively, to 11th and 9th. Trends can always flip back, but the conditions in an ice-cold Kansas City next week won’t be conducive to an offensive turnaround.

Allen might be in the only quarterback in the NFL who can throw multiple interceptions, lose a fumble, fail on a costly 4th & 1 conversion attempt and still finish with a very respectable +7.9 EPA on a massive 55 plays. Key to offsetting the many negatives was the +6.7 EPA Allen added on scrambles and designed runs, excluding getting stuffed on fourth down.

This mistake-filled effort was weirdly an argument for and against his potential status as MVP. Perhaps no other quarterback could put a team offensively on his back like Allen, yet his errors would have been a primary reason the Bills lost if their defense didn’t hold down the opponent. The Bills will want a cleaner effort from their quarterback in the playoffs, but facing the Steelers at home, possibly without T.J. Watt, should be a very favorable matchup. The early Wild Card betting lines have the Bills as a 9.5-point favorite, the biggest different of any game.

Tua Tagovalioa had a flat game by EPA efficiency. He didn’t take any sacks and his two interceptions “only” cost the Dolphins 3.6 expected points. The Dolphins just weren’t able to sustain drives, going 4-for-10 on third down, and ended up running less than half the number of plays than the Bills (48 to 77), despite getting the ball back immediately after giving up a punt return touchdown.

The Dolphins offense can’t be counted out in the playoffs, and they’ll face a Chiefs team that presents less of a threat offensively (never thought I’d say this) than a handful of other playoff teams. The Dolphins are 3.5-point underdogs right now, and have better than a 40% implied win probability in markets.