Week 18 Saturday, Ravens-Steelers & Colts-Texans: Advanced Reviews
C.J. Stroud locks up a playoff birth for the Texans, plus Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. And the Steelers are now more likely than not to enter the postseason
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
BAL-PIT
The Steelers did what they had to do to give themselves a chance for the playoffs, but it wasn’t pretty. Beyond the torrential rain and generally miserable conditions in Baltimore, the football on the field didn’t provide much sunshine either. The Steelers, in particular, chose to lean on the running game, passing at a rate 20% under expectation.
The respective offensive success rates of 47% and 36% weren’t horrible for the Steelers and Ravens, but sloppy play in the form of eight fumbles (four lost) generally slowed down scoring and offensive momentum. One reason that the adjusted scores have the game a bit closer than the actual scores is the Steelers better fumble luck, recovering four of their six fumbles, whereas the Ravens lost both of theirs.
It was an altogether rough offensive performance for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson and other starters sitting, with sub-40% success rates in passing and rushing, plus the two biggest negative plays of the game coming on running back fumbles (combined -10.0 EPA).
The game was broken open by the most impactful play, a 71-yard touchdown by Diontae Johnson on the first play of the fourth quarter, coming on 3rd & 3 with the score 7-7. That play added 6.7 expected points and 33.5% win probability. The Steelers pre-play win probability was 55%, then jumped to nearly 90% after the score.
Neither quarterback fell apart in the poor conditions, but Tyler Huntley’s -13.4% CPOE (15-of-28) with a 6.1-yard aDOT illustrates his struggles to move the ball when he wasn’t scrambling. Mason Rudolph barely looked to move the ball down the field at all, other than his huge touchdown to Johnson. Recently surging second-year receiver George Pickens wasn’t even targeted, and Rudolph only had a 3.1-yard aDOT.
The Ravens had nothing to play for, and now the Steelers have around a 70% chance to make the playoffs. Either a Dolphins win against the Bills or the Titans taking down the Jaguars will punch their ticket to the postseason, a fairly extraordinary result considering the tumult in Pittsburgh and being on their third starting quarterback of the season.
IND-HOU
Apologies to Colts’ fans, but it’s safe to say that this was the result most neutrals were hoping for in Indy. Shane Steichen and the Colts should be proud of their season, considering lowered expectations coming into the year, and needing to shut down their No. 3 overall pick quarterback early in the season. The Texans were able to ride their outstanding rookie quarterback in this game, who put up elite numbers that may have also clinched him Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The number that stands out more than any other is the Colts focus on running the ball, doing so at a rate nearly 25% over expectation. In a game they never led after the 9-minute mark in first quarter, the Colts called 37 designed runs to only 29 dropbacks (44% pass rate), whereas the Texans basically dropped back in line with expectations (31 dropbacks to 26 designed runs).
Both teams had similar success rates offensively, but the Texans’ success was concentrated in the passing game, which gave them more opportunities to make big plays and juice overall efficiency. For instance, both teams had big offensive plays at as the top of the most impactful of the game, but the Texans 75-yard touchdown pass resulted in 50% more expected points than Jonathan Taylor’s 49-yard touchdown run.
The most impactful play in win probability was the Colts failed 4th & 1 conversion attempt from the Texans 15 with a little over a minute remaining, down by only six points. That basically sealed the game, with the Texans purposely taking a safety on the final play of the game.
Just a pure masterclass for C.J. Stroud: +0.45 EPA per play, 8.3% CPOE, zero turnovers and only two sacks, and done with a longer aDOT and also adding two expected points on three scrambles, two going for first downs. Stroud is now the massive betting favorite for OROY.
Garnder Minshew gave the Colts a similar version of his play that we’ve seen all season. He was solid, but not spectacular, and limited mistakes, but wasn’t given enough chances to win the game with only 29 dropbacks. Minshew wasn’t accurate (13-of-24), which especially hurt on third down conversions. The Colts were 1-of-11 on third down, 0-of-1 on fourth.
There’s still a lot to learn on Sunday that will affect the Texans Wild Card matchup. If the Jags lose to the Titans, the Texans will win the division and either face the Bills (if they win) or Steelers (if the Bills lose). If the Jags win, the Texans will go on the road to Kansas City (if the Bills lose) or Buffalo (if the Bills win).
