Week 18 NFL Power Rankings

The Bills maintain the top spot, with the Ravens now second, followed by the Lions to round out the top-tier

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 2% weight at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions are neck-and-neck-and-neck in the race for NFL’s best offense, with the Lions trailing the other two in defensive strength. The Ravens defense has been on a huge run in the second half of the season. That unit was 27th in opponent EPA per play Weeks 1-11 (+0.07), and rose to second in Weeks 12-17 (-0.12). In anything, their defense might be underrated right now, though the power rankings model does weigh recent data more heavily.

The other cohort of teams in the top tier of the NFL are much better defensively, but also weaker on offense: Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. The power rankings value offensive-to-defensive strength in a 60%-40% split, meaning this cohort isn’t going to rank as highly as the best offensive teams.

The wild card is the Kansas City Chiefs, which is strange to say for a team that has won three of the last five Super Bowls. The Chiefs haven’t been as good this season by the numbers as the six teams listed above, but they get the biggest quarterback boost in the power rankings model, and they have the best playoff positioning, with the No. 1 seed locked up already. I don’t think the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL right now, but I do think they have the best chance to win the Super Bowl.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS