Week 18 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Falcons-Panthers, Cowboys-Commanders, Packers-Bears, Colts-Jaguars, Patriots-Bills, Eagles-Giants, Buccaneers-Saints and Titans-Texans

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL (-7.5) vs CAR

Ultimately, the results of this game ended up being immaterial to the playoff hunt, but the Atlanta Falcons didn’t know that at the time. The Falcons needed to win and see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose, but neither happened in the early window. While the Carolina Panthers won the game in overtime, the adjusted scores saw the Falcons as the better team, primarily because of their superior offensive success rate (60% to 50%).

Both teams were awesome in EPA efficiency, though the Falcons’ numbers were hurt by a huge turnover loss and failed fourth down. Upon viewing, the interception that cost the team 6.4 expected points was the second receiver-drop-turned-INT of in as many weeks for Michael Penix. The Falcons also missed a field-goal attempt from 52 yards out (-3.5 EPA).

The Panthers offense was on fire, in particular in the passing game. Bryce Young’s total of +23.5 EPA generated at +0.60 per play were both career highs. Young didn’t turn the ball over or take any sacks.

Penix also played well, especially considering that the interception wasn’t his fault. Depending on late-window results, the Panthers will pick anywhere from 6th to 8th in the 2025 NFL draft.

DAL vs WAS (-7)