Week 17 TNF Advanced Review: Cowboys at Titans

Cowboys get the W despite a ton of turnovers, with a lot of help from penalties

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Cowboys get the expected win

Whenever you see that much red in the adjusted scores & metrics table, things normally didn’t go well for the home squad. That was the case last night for the Titans, though the final score of 27-13 doesn’t look like total domination.

The Titans 28.4 success rate was in the bottom-10 of all offenses this season, and they were especially hurt by penalties. The Cowboys weren’t able to pull away mostly due to three turnovers, two of the more fluky variety (dropped pass and fumbled snap), costing the team a total of 11.2 expected points.