Week 17 Sunday, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

The Steelers stay alive, the Seahawks need a lot of help and the Chiefs defense (again) drags the offense to victory

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SEA-PIT

I know Mason Rudolph and the Steelers offense looked good this week, but I didn’t see a 95th percentile offensive output coming in Seattle. Not that the Seahawks defense is very good (4th worst in opponent EPA), but starting Rudolph over a heathy Kenny Pickett looks more like hoping for a hot steak than cold analysis. Either way, the offense delivered Mike Tomlin’s 17th straight season without a losing record, and Rudolph will undoubtedly start Week 18 against a Ravens team with nothing to play for.