Week 17 Sunday, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

The Ravens and 49ers lock up the No. 1 seed, Lamar Jackson does the same for MVP, while the AFC and NFC South still remain up for grabs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL-MIA

The “MVP Bowl” leans heavily in one direction, with the Ravens hitting the 99.9th percentile in overall offensive efficiency and the Dolphins sputtering in both phases of offense. In dropback efficiency, the Ravens hit the 100th percentile, meaning right there with the highest EPA per play games over the last two seasons.

The adjusted scores have this results as a lot closer than the 37-point differential, as is usually the case on such lopsided victories. The Ravens down-by-down success rate didn’t come close to matching their EPA efficiency, which drove down their adjusted score.

The Ravens were consistently really good on offense, then added a handful of enormously valuable plays, including a 35-yard touchdown on 4th & 7 that added +6.1 EPA. The Ravens were “unsuccessful” on the first three plays on that possession, then made it all up and then some with the 4th down try. Similarly the Ravens added 6.0 expected points on a 75-yard Zay Flowers score. Those two plays alone juiced Lamar Jackson’s dropback EPA from 15.4 to 27.5 (44% of the total).

The adjusted score saw the Dolphins as slightly better than their EPA results, but it was a poor effort overall. Three turnovers killed their efficiency, though the most costly - a Mike White fumble (-6.1 EPA) - came well into garbage time. The Dolphins passing game was flustered all game, only registering a 37% success rate, throwing two picks (-9.9 EPA) and Tua Tagovalioa taking three sacks (-4.2 EPA).

This will end all MVP discussions, with Jackson not even needing to play Week 18, and already being the odds-on favorite before having, by far, his most valuable game of the year. I’ll probably write something up next week with a little more time to dig through numbers post-holiday, but and framing of “Lamar Jackson shouldn’t be MVP” will do more harm than good in the discourse, even if you can make that case. I still think there might be valuable in discussing broadly how Jackson’s season is an eye-of-the-beholder exercise for film analysts, and how numbers can help us measure what the eye/brain can’t fully digest and weigh.

It was a bad game for Tua, who will have to brush himself off quickly and get ready for the AFC East deciding game at home against the Bills next week.

BUF-NE