Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, MNF Advanced Review
49ers in a virtual tie with the Eagles and Bills in the power rankings. Chargers secure a playoff spot
Links here for advanced review write-ups for TNF, Saturday games and Sunday’s contests.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022 Adjusted Scores are available to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Chargers punch their playoff tickets
The Chargers dominated the game in almost every aspect last night, with an adjusted point differential of 13, a 15% gap in offensive success rate and nearly 20 EPA advantage on the highest leverage downs (3rd & 4th).
The Chargers have locked up a playoff spot for the first time since 2018 with two weeks remaining. They have nothing to play against the Rams and Broncos, two teams well out of the playoff hunt. It will be interesting to see how Brandon Staley manages a roster that always seems to catch the injury bug in these meaningless games.
It’s wasn’t an extraordinary effort by Justin Herbert according to the advanced stats, but he made it look better to our eyes, as he has for most of the season. His two turnovers were huge negatives: a strip sack where he was loose with the ball (-5.1 EPA) and a tip-drill interception into tight coverage (-4.7 EPA). Add to that four sacks (-3.2 EPA), and the Chargers lower-aDOT passing game wasn’t going to give Hebert the opportunities to make up for all the losses, even with a +13.4 completion percentage over expectation.
Herbert’s increasing sack count is something to focus on, especially with the offense structured around short throws and getting the ball out quickly. Herbert had a league-best 2.7% sack rate through Week 9, but it has increased to 8.7% since. Herbert sack rate ranking has fallen the 11th lowest, and it’s the 8th highest since Week 10. It’s going to put a lower ceiling on Herbert’s efficiency in his first playoff run if the Chargers blocking can’t keep him protected.
Our favorite social media quarterback gave us something to behold on a handoff to lateral to laser throw down the field that have the Twittersphere buzzing, which will feed even further into the misalignment between Herbert’s efficiency and perception.
I honestly have no idea what the Colts are doing at quarterback, but even the worst predictions for how Nick Foles would fair were likely too optimistic. Foles’ -0.69 EPA per play was the worst mark for any quarterback this season (min 20 dropbacks).
Brandon Staley, the King who abdicated his nerd throne, once again passed on a strong go-for opportunity (+2.5 WP) on 4th & 1 from the Chargers 43 yard-line. It’s par for the course now. Jeff Saturday has been fairly good about his fourth down choices, despite an opening press conference that indicated he’d love kicking in most situations.
Week 17 NFL Power Rankings
These numbers are built on the expected EPA per play numbers that drive my adjusted scores. I discount outlier plays, fumble luck and other high variance aspects of the game. I also adjust the numbers further for team strength of schedule - the technical process laid out here by Alok Pattani, former ESPN Analytics Specialist who helped create some of their metrics, including QBR.
Armed with efficiencies and strength of schedule adjustments, the final tweaks are decaying past results (most recent game is more representative of future performance than Week 1) and use a combination of art and science for injury adjustments, especially at the quarterback position. My injury adjustments are a combination of base rates for certain positions, past historical performance for the specific players and some ole’ fashioned opinions on players that we lack sufficient data to judge.
All the power rankings and power rating data are available to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
You can check out last week’s rankings information here.
Week 17 Team Tiers
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