Week 17 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Bills-Jets, Jaguars-Titans, Saints-Raiders, Giants-Colts, Eagles-Cowboys & Bucs-Panthers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BUF (-10) vs NYJ

While the Buffalo Bills didn’t have a way of improving their No. 2 seeding going into Week 17, they needed one more win to prevent the Baltimore Ravens from having a chance to usurp them for a potential home-field matchup in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Bills put that possibility to rest in authoritative fashion, blowing out the New York Jets.

The Bills were very solid but not spectacular offensively, and their defense turned over the Jets three times (+16.2 EPA). The contrast between teams was most clear on third down, with the Bills converting 8-of-13 (+12.8 EPA) and the Jets only going 4-or-9 (-1.9). The Jets also failed on their only fourth down conversion attempt (-3.8 EPA).

The EPA efficiencies and big play tables are impacted by lots of garbage time, with Josh Allen sitting the entire fourth quarter, and Aaron Rodgers on the bench for the last two Jets possessions, which both ended in touchdowns.

It wasn’t an elite performance by Allen in the traditional box score, gaining 182 yards passing and 17 on the ground, though he did finish with three combined touchdowns. Allen juiced his EPA number by being more highly efficient on high-leverage third downs, and also avoiding any negatives - no sacks, no turnovers.

All things considered, I assume Allen will still be the leader in the MVP race coming out of this game. Going by EPA metrics, Allen leads Lamar Jackson on a total (+206.2 to +194.1) and per play basis (+0.323 to +0.316), but the margins are quite thin.

JAX vs TEN (-1)