Week 16 Sunday, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

The Dolphins take down the Cowboys in the game of the week, plus the Bucs keep rolling into the playoffs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

TB-JAX

This might be the biggest actual versus adjusted score difference I’ve seen, going all the way from an 18-point Bucs victory to the Jags being one point better by the fundamentals. The Jags were better offensively on a play-by-play basis (45% success rate to 39%), but got crushed on the highest leverage plays. I’d take these numbers with a large dose of salt, as the Bucs had a 99% win probability shortly into the third quarter, and relied on largely unproductive runs to close out the game.