Week 16 Sunday, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

Amari Cooper carries the Browns into the playoffs, the Lions secure the NFC North, and the Seahawks get one step closer to the playoffs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL-IND

A strong game for the Falcons in a must-win spot. Both phases of the game were working, hitting an offensive success rate over 50%, and holding the Colts offensive to sub-20th percentile efficiency. Arthur Smith’s move to Taylor Heinicke paid off this time. Not only was Heinicke and the Falcons passing attack highly efficient, but he avoiding mistakes and kept the Falcons offense moving consistently. The Falcons scored on seven of 10 drives.