Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

We have a new No. 1 ranked team, and a couple Week 15 winners fall due to poor offensive performances

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 2% weight at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

The Buffalo Bills are now, fairly clearly, the best team in the NFL by the adjusted-score based numbers. Yeah, their defense has been really bad the last couple weeks, but that can happen against great offenses, especially on the road. The Bills have a below-average defense, but they’re the best offense in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens are the next-best offense to the Bills, but their defense is even worse by the numbers. The Detroit Lions are third among the top-tier offenses and have the best defense of the bunch. Still, there’s enough of a gap between them and the Bills offensively to notch them down overall.

The sneaky team is the Philadelphia Eagles, who aren’t in the class of the Lions and Bills yet, but are right with the Ravens overall, even with a materially worse offense. During the late stages of last season, it would have been crazy to assume that the Eagles defense would be arguably the best in the NFL this year.

The Eagles have gone from 29th to 4th in unadjusted opponent EPA, moving up to 1st this year with adjustments and more emphasis on recent results. They’re another example of the instability of defensive performance year-over-year. Of the top-12 defenses this season in opponent EPA per play, only two ranked in the top-12 last year. For offenses, there are only four new teams in the top-12, and those all have had significant upgrades at quarterback (Commanders, Vikings), or their signal-caller returning from missing time last season (Bengals, Cardinals).

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS