Week 16 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Falcons-Giants, Panthers-Cardinals, Bears-Lions, Bengals-Browns, Colts-Titans, Jets-Rams and Commanders-Eagles

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL (-9) vs NYG

It was a highly successful debut for rookie Michael Penix Jr. against an admittedly ideal opponent. The Atlanta Falcons were better offensively by the fundamental metric of success rate, enhanced in actual results by extreme turnover losses by the New York Giants offense.

The Giants only translated their average-ish 45% success rate into 2nd percentile EPA efficiency, with not one, but two pick-6’s costing them a combined 17.3 expected points, with a strip-sack fumble also added to the mix (-5.4 EPA). The Giants lost over half an expected points per dropback, a bottom-10 efficiency mark for any team this season.

The Falcons offense also turned the ball over, but only once. The play was classified as an interception for Penix, yet it was really a third-down conversion turned drop by Kyle Pitts that was basically lateraled to the opposing team (-3.9 EPA). Including that loss, the Falcons still averaged +0.27 EPA per dropback, and had slightly negative EPA rushing the ball.

The Falcons passing offense was more methodically positive than explosive, with their biggest EPA gain coming on a 30-yard DPI call converting a 3rd & 8. The Falcons theoretically could have been more explosive offensively by leaning into the pass, but they continued a heavy focus on the run, in this game calling runs on 35 of 65 plays (-11.3% versus expectation).

Removing the interception from Penix’s numbers, he averaged +0.40 EPA per play, and didn’t take a single sack. As I mentioned early, he wasn’t asked to do a whole lot, but having a solid floor will give the Falcons more than enough evidence they made the right decision to make the change at quarterback.

The Falcons have around a 40% chance to make the playoffs based on early window results, with the Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers left on their schedule.

CAR vs ARI (-5)