Week 15 TNF 49ers-Rams: Advanced Review
A slog of an offensive affair, with the 49ers now basically eliminated from the postseason and asking questions on how to proceed
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
SF (-3) vs LA
We got the polar opposite game from when the Los Angeles Rams faced the Buffalo Bills last weekend, a rain-filled affair against the San Francisco 49ers that only offered scoring of six total field goals. The teams combined for 25 first downs on 22 offensive drives and went a combined 7-for-27 on third down conversions. Neither team missed a field goal, meaning the score wasn’t deflated by special teams failures.
While both teams were poor offensively, the Rams were clearly better in success rate (39% to 29%), EPA efficiency (27th percentile to 7th) and yards per play (4.6 to 3.6). The Rams avoided turnovers, while the 49ers gave the ball away on a questionable long throw. The 49ers never even enter the red zone the entire contest.
The Rams were “better” in both phases of offense, but the 49ers were particularly bad dropping back to pass. This was the worst passing offensive success rate for the 49ers with Brock Purdy at quarterback (28.6%), and the only worse EPA efficiency passing came earlier this season against the Green Bay Packers.
Believe it or not, this wasn’t the worst EPA efficiency game of Purdy’s career. He was slightly worse by the numbers against the Baltimore Ravens last season, though he at least showed the ability to make gains, massively offset by multiple interceptions. In this game, Purdy’s throws added negative value, even when they weren’t intercepted.
It’s still remarkable that Purdy has only posted negative EPA per play six times over 40 NFL games with at least 20 dropbacks. But four of those six games have come this season, adding to doubts he’s truly worthy of a franchise quarterback contract this offseason. Matthew Stafford lost even more EPA on non-interceptions throws, but he didn’t turn the ball over or take any sacks, raising the floor to bad-but-not-awful.
The 49ers now only have a sliver of a chance to make the playoffs, and can be eliminated as soon as this weekend with wins from the Seattle Seahawks closing the door on the NFC West title and the Washington Commanders putting the Wild Card out of reach. The Rams are only one game behind the Seahawks in the loss column and won the first time the two faced each other. Their rematch comes Week 18, potentially deciding the division.
