Week 15 Sunday, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

James Cook and the Bills rushing attack demolishes the Cowboys, while Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense can't be stopped

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI-SF

This 49ers offensive is hitting levels of insanity in the late season. The worst offensive efficiency (EPA per play) they’ve had since Week 10 was still in the 78th percentile, and now half their offensive performances on the season have been at the 90th percentile or better, with only two coming in below the 50th percentile. Despite the gaudy rushing touchdown numbers for Christian McCaffrey (13), their passing game has been the driving force leading to overall efficiency, though at lower volume (bottom-7 pass rate versus expectation).