Week 15 NFL Power Rankings

The Lions and Bills stay on top. The Chiefs continuing to tumble, while winning with poor fundamentals

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 2% weight at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

We’re getting a more concrete tiering of team strength at the top of the NFL. Remember that the diagonal tiering lines above are drawn to give a roughly 60/40 mix in offensive/defense importance, which helps offensive powerhouses like the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens that do not have meaningfully strong defenses. The Detroit Lions are the most complete team, with the third most efficient offense and a defense in the top-10. The Bills and Lions are virtually tied for strongest team overall, even though the former lost last week in a shootout.

A mini-tier below the Bills and Lions are the Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens. While all these teams have different mixes of offensive and defensive strengths, overall they project fairly similarly in my model.

The anomaly team is the Kansas City Chiefs, with a 12-1 record this year, yet fundamental play that puts them solidly in the second tier. In fact, the 6-7 San Francisco 49ers look a bit better by the numbers, coming off of a top-notch effort dismantling the Chicago Bears.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS