Week 15 Advanced Review
A historic Vikings comeback, #OurJags marching to the postseason, Chargers with the highest playoff leverage win, Patriots the worst loss
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022 Adjusted Scores are available to subscribers via Google Sheet. Check them out. I welcome your feedback.
Week 15 Takeaways
Vikings accomplish the impossible comeback
Trailing 33-0 at halftime, the nflfastR win probability model had the Vikings with a 1% chance to win, and it didn’t crack 2% until the Vikings scored their third touchdown, trailing 36-21 with 13 minutes left in regulation. Betting markets got down to around 3% implied win probability at the lowest point (30/1 odds), but books are less incentivized to be accurate when liability rises on long odds.
Friend of the substack Matthew Coller at Purple Insider has all the details on how the Vikings made the greatest comeback in NFL history, including a motivationally confusing speech from Patrick Peterson at halftime:
“I'll never forget it as long as I live,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “I addressed the team before we went back out there. I overheard him walk over towards the offense, ‘We're going to get stops, you just need five touchdowns. That's nothing.’ It was a nice little moment for me to lead right in off of. I said, ‘Pat, you're exactly right.’ That's what we needed at the time.”
Kirk Cousins didn’t know what he was supposed to make of Peterson’s words.
“I didn't know if he was being sarcastic or what,” the Vikings QB said. “When I looked at him, he was serious. I think his point was, ‘We're not going to let them score anymore, so if you can get five touchdowns, that will be good enough.’”
There’s still a chance the Vikings can secure the No. 1 seed, if you have a Dumb & Dumber understanding of probability. The Vikings singular path combines winning all three remaining games (NYG, GB, CHI) and the Eagles losing all three of theirs (DAL, NO, NYG). The Vikings are only playing for potential home field advantage in the later rounds of the playoffs versus the 49ers with three weeks remaining, and I’ll be watching to see how their analytically friendly organization approaches start-sit decisions down the stretch.
Browns win in spite of, not because of Watson (again)
The Browns are 2-1 with Deshaun Watson as their starter, after going 4-7 with Jacoby Brissett; this is a classically deceiving #QBWinz situation. The Browns offense has been significantly worse with Watson, and the team’s defense has picked things up, admittedly against weaker competition, with two of the three matchups against the Texans and the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens.
The Ravens playoff chances are still very secure despite the loss (roughly 97%), but now they’re more likely to be a wild card team and have a road game to start the playoffs. The Browns, on the other hand, have less than a 5% chance to make the postseason, even assuming they win out against the Saints, Commanders and Steelers.
Bills overcome the Dolphins challenge and a fourth quarter storm
Despite a costly fumble (-5.5 EPA), Josh Allen was very efficient, averaging over 0.3 EPA per play, a mark he’s only hit twice in the last nine games. Bills remain the No. 1 seed with the Bears, Bengals and Patriots remaining on the schedule.
The Dolphins passing attack continues to make one or two big play per game (this week a 67-yard touchdown to Jaylen Waddle, +6.6 EPA), but outside of a handful of big plays, the offense doesn’t have any consistency in the air in recent weeks.
Overall the offense looked good against the Bills, but mostly driven by strong rushing success (58% rate) and efficiency (+0.46 EPA per play). Despite being second in the NFL in EPA per play, Tua Tagovailoa’s MVP campaign is effectively dead, even trailing in betting odds to teammate Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins are basically a coin-flip to make the playoffs with the Packers, Patriots and Jets remaining.
#OurJags control their own destiny (but destinies have a mind of their own)
You read this newsletter to get next week’s storylines today. I highlighted the surging Jags and their growing playoff odd in the Week 14 review, and now they’re the talk of the town the after defeating the Cowboys on a walk-off pick-6 in overtime. The Jags now control their own destiny: if they win out and beat the Titans in Week 18 they’ll win the AFC South.
(But I guess the Titans also control their own destiny, which then affects the Jags destiny. More importantly, the point of destiny is its inability to be controlled. Destiny talk gets confusing)
The Cowboys now have noting to play for the next few weeks: they can’t catch the Eagles and can’t get the No. 2 seed and a potential home game in the Divisional Round. I’d like to see Dak Prescott getting at least some time on the sideline the next few weeks if the team has an early lead, or a big deficit.
Eagles dominate the late downs and get the W
The Eagles lost turnover battle 3-to-1 (Bears had 9.4 EPA advantage), with the Bears lucky to only lose one of their four fumbles. Where the Eagles more than made up for it on high leverage downs, converting 9-16 third downs and 1-2 on fourth, leading to a massive 18.6 EPA advantage on late downs.
A.J. Brown had a career high 181 yards on nine catches, and he combined with DeVonta Smith (5-126) to account for 307 of the Eagles 315 total receiving yards. Jalen Hurts remains the MVP favorite, but three turnover picks (-14.9 expected points) dropped his per-play efficiency to below the 50th percentile.
The Eagles now can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC next week against the Cowboys, which would leave coach of the year favorite Nick Siranni with two weeks of perplexing start-sit decisions.
Justin Fields did his best to keep things close, gaining a total of 5.7 EPA on scrambles and designed runs, but lost a massive 11.6 expected points on sacks. Eagles defenders were living in the Bears backfield, with Javon Hargrave, Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat with two sacks each.
The Restoration of the Roar can’t be ignored
The Lions won their sixth game in the last seven, but they weren’t offensively impressive. This matchup was a contrast in styles the Lions having the 13th best offense and 31st defense according to my power rankings, and the Jets having a top-five defense and middling offense, with a likely downgrade at quarterback after being forced to insert Zach Wilson as starter. The Jets are still alive for the playoffs (30% probability), but they need Mike White back to have a real chance.
Two second half plays determined the winner: an awful looking, first-and-10 Wilson interception in third quarter that was run back nearly 40 yards, and a 51-yard Lions touchdown pass on fourth-and-inches to tight end Brock Wright. Those plays swung a combined 13.7 expected points in the Lions’ favor.
The Lions are now firmly in the playoff mix, with only 1.5 games separating the Giants, Commanders, Lions and Seahawks, and two wild card tickets in play. The Lions face the lowly Panthers next week, and finish with the Bears and Packers. We don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but Aaron Rodgers’ start-sit decision the last week of the season could have a material effect on the Lions playoff hopes.
Chiefs get an ugly win, but Mahomes posts elite metrics
The Chiefs offense had 95th percentile success rate against the Texans (62.3%), but didn’t get their normal third down boost (-0.7 EPA) and had a -13 EPA differential in special teams and penalties. The Chiefs outgained the Texans 440 yards to 213 in regulation, yet still went to overtime.
Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.4 EPA per play, an elite number that extends his efficiency lead this season. Yet, Mahomes is still significantly trailing Jalen Hurts in MVP odds (+165 to -150). In total value added, Mahomes is lapping the field with 216 EPA to second place Josh Allen at 153 EPA. If Hurts sits and Mahomes balls out against the Seahawks, Broncos and Raiders, he has a good chance to get his second award.
Saints win and gain on the Bucs, probably doesn’t matter
Even if the Saints win-out against the Browns, Eagles (who could have nothing to play for) and the Panthers, they still only have a 11% chance to make the playoffs after the Bucs took care of business against the Bengals.
Desmond Ridder was uninspiring in his debut start, passing for only 97 yards (3.7 per attempt) and taking four sacks. His overall EPA per play was the third worst of the week (-0.21) and his completion percentage over expectation was twice as bad any other quarterback (-18.6%). The Falcons kept their extreme run-heavy game plan with the rookie under center, passing only on half of their offensive plays (16.2% under expectation).
Chargers win the highest playoff leverage matchup, Pats lose the most leverage
Chargers playoffs odds would have been around 35% with a loss, but now stand at 77%, the 40% delta based on this outcome the biggest of Week 15. The Chargers don’t have a winning team left on their schedule (IND, LA, DEN).
It was another sluggish game for Justin Herbert, who was hurt by incredible defensive plays, and ended the game with slightly negative EPA. Herbert makes the spectacular look routine, yet sits at 21st in EPA per play this season, between Marcus Mariota and Kyler Murray.
The Patriots suffered the worse loss of playoff probability this week, dropping to only 25%, which would have been over 60% with a win. The adjusted scores saw the Pats as a slightly better team, but both offenses struggled to maintain success.
It’s a convert or not league, and the Patriots were 2-14 on third down (-11.1 EPA) while the Raiders went 5-14 (-0.4 EPA). That said, the ridiculousness of the final play shouldn’t be overlooked.
Bengals benefit from a Bucs turnover party in Tampa
The Bucs turned the ball over four times in the second half, losing a combined 17.2 expected points.
Unfortunately, there’s no killing the playoff hopes of this Bucs team no matter how poorly they play. The Bucs are still expected to make the playoffs in three quarters of possible outcomes, meaning someone will likely be forced to go to Tampa in the Wild Card Round, even if they’re a better team.
Joe Burrow was largely successful, avoiding sacks (two on 39 dropbacks) and continuing to boost his efficiency through fewer negatives. Though an ugly, 20-yard sack on fourth down was negated by penalty.
The Bengals offense didn’t have to be particularly efficient (+0.01 EPA per play) to win this one, benefiting from amazing field position on turnovers, starting on average from the Bucs the 25-yard line on four third-quarter scoring drives. The Bengals offense has the star-power, but the defense has quietly become a top-10 unit.
Giants take control of the wild card hunt
They aren’t out of the woods, but with a win last night the Giants are approaching a 90% playoff probability, mostly leaving the Commanders, Lions and Seahawks to fight for the last playoffs spot. It was a coming out party for Kayvon Thibodeaux, logging a sack-strip-recovery, the most impactful play of the game (6.5 expected points), and adding three tackles for loss.
The next most impactful play was another Taylor Heinicke fumble (4.5 expected points), secured by a brilliant challenge from Brian Daboll. The Giants’ coach gave credit to his in-house nerds Cade Knox and Ty Siam for the consistent boost the Giants have gotten in game management this season.
Turnovers were killers for a Commanders offense that had a lower success rate, but out-gained the Giants 6.5 yards per play to 4.8, driven by bigger plays down the field.
The Good, Bad and Ugly in 4th down decisions
McDaniels and the Raiders gave up the most win probability this week, mostly on a decision most coaches would follow (fourth-and-1, down 7 , but the numbers showed a huge potential gain going for it.
The Lions gained a massive 16% on fourth down decisions, an expected 14.5% coming on just one decision, the fourth-and-1 touchdown to seal the game. The actual results of the play translated to a 50% win probability gain.
