Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

49ers extend their lead over the rest of the NFL, as the true contenders for the Super Bowl remains the top-8 teams

You’ll notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on results. The numbers still use some 2022 data (roughly 5% weighting), and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

The San Francisco 49ers had separated into their own tier a week ago based on schedule-adjusted 2023 performance, but solidified their relative dominance even more with a convincing win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. The rest of the football media complex will catch up this week to how good the 49ers are, but it’s something we all should have known going into last week, as evidenced by the correct valuations built into their favorite status.

There isn’t much separating the next tier of what I’ll label as the “true contenders” for the Super Bowl. The Bills have a much bigger impediment than the others on their trophy quest with such difficulties even getting into the playoffs. I put their chance of making the postseason at roughly 25%, which is slightly higher than what’s implied by better markets. I’ve been higher on the Bills for several weeks now, which was the correct call based don results in Philadelphia a couple weeks ago, but hasn’t translated to team wins.

A record of 6-6 with five games remaining at first glance doesn’t appear insurmountable, but it comes with the additional impediments of the Bills having the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL (@KC, DAL, @LAC, NE and @MIA). Excepting the Patriots, every remaining Bills opponent is in the top-12 of my power rankings, three in the top-5.

The one teams that look fade-able but clearly destined for the playoffs is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who might lose a little shine if Trevor Lawrence misses time and following a tough loss to Jake Browning and the Bengals at home.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.