Week 14 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Tua Tagovailoa is back to his efficient ways, Dak Prescott holding onto a top spot, and Jordan Love projecting similarly to C.J. Stroud

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

It’s a small change, but Patrick Mahomes fell a bit last week versus the other quarterbacks with elite grading and efficiency (Dak Prescott, Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa). Even at 8-4, the Chiefs are firmly in the No. 1 seed discussion in the AFC. And without the Bills or Bengals projected to make the playoffs (roughly 25% probability for the Bills), it opens up a easier path to the Super Bowl than most would have expected at the season’s start. A handful fewer drops this year and Mahomes’ efficiency could be right there with the others.

Brock Purdy will always be the poster child for efficiency over grading, even if the rank of the latter has risen to 12th and sits within less than one point of getting firmly into the top-10. On the flip side, Lamar Jackson has the biggest negative differential with his EPA per play versus where you’d expect it to be based on his PFF grade. Since Week 7, when Jackson had the highest PFF grade, his relative ranking has fallen to more closely match his efficiency, which has always been a tier or two off of the top quarterbacks. Both metrics agree that Jackson isn’t having an elite seasons, but EPA per play puts it closer to good than great.

We talked a lot about the positives of Jordan Love last week, and he followed that up with one of the strongest performances of the year, in primetime with the world watching. Love is still more highly ranked by efficiency than grading, which somewhat matches his bigger negative hit in my adjusted quarterback efficiency metric. The Bayesian rankings just look at unadjusted EPA per play, so he continues to rise up to the ranks.

WEEK 14 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last five seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 120 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

I’m keeping Bailey Zappe and Joe Flacco as starters after they were chosen to play last week, though neither was good enough to secure their role. I’m also putting Zach Wilson as the starter for the Jets, though no one what the role.