Week 13 SNF, Packers-Chiefs: Advanced Review

Jordan Love keeps adding evidence he's the answer for the Packers, who are likely to make the playoffs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

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The adjusted scores had this one a little more narrow of a victory for the Packers than the actual 8-point differential, as both offenses were equally successful. The Chiefs found more success on the ground, while the Packers were dominant passing the ball against a Chiefs defense that had the second lowest opponent passing success rate and fourth lowest EPA per play going into the game.

A costly Chiefs turnover and a huge Packers fourth down conversion made huge impacts, the former costing the Chiefs 4.0 expected points and 12.5% win probability and the latter netting the Packers 3.9 expected points and 11.2% win probability. Patrick Mahomes sole mistake was especially negative because of the context of coming on 1st & 10, at midfield and with only a little over five minutes remaining. The pass looked like a decent throw, but the intended target Skyy Moore slowed down a little to find the ball.

Unfortunately the focus post-game, especially from Chiefs supporters, will be on a missed defensive pass interference with less than a minute left that would have given the Chiefs the ball around the Packers 5 yard-line. This would have been a 45-yard gain and put the Chiefs in the driver’s seat to win the game. My general philosophy is to treat mistakes by officials like another piece of inherent variance in the game. Often you can also find mistakes that benefited both sides throughout the game, but are forgotten versus those that came near the end.

Seeing the praise for Jordan Love last night on social media made me irrationally annoyed after hyping up his recent performance in my Week 13 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings:

As someone with a strong EPA-over-grading lean when they’re in dispute, I’m very intrigued by Jordan Love. I was skeptical of his early season efficiency, based on a small-sample of big plays with bad accuracy, as measured by completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). His mid-season efficiency got worse, but a lot of the underlying fundamentals were steady. Now he’s been good by the numbers and fundamentals the last few weeks, posting significantly positive EPA in four straight games, and positive CPOE in three of four. He’s kept negative low, while generating most of his EPA through air yards, not relying on receiver YAC-based scheming.

I’m not declaring Love the answer for the Packers, but I would be okay with them passing on quarterback in the first round of the draft if Young keeps up this level and style of play going into the offseason. And this is all from someone who was a Love skeptic coming into the season, mostly due to the simple low base rate associated with quarterbacks working out.

A rational person would want to see the results match his takes, but I’m allergic to using small-sample island games to make overstated takes, a favorite pastime for many.

Patrick Mahomes wasn’t bad in this game, but there wasn’t enough juice and big plays in the passing game to make up for the big turnover, and his three sacks also weighed down on production almost as much as the pick(-3.6 EPA). Sack avoidance is one of Mahomes’ under-appreciated talents.